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Tampa's playoff, trade and financial situation

With 4 games left before the trade deadline the Tampa Bay Lightning are currently 7 points out of a playoff spot with only 20 games left in the regular season.  We have a very difficult decision to make in regards to whether or not we decide to keep some of our veteran players in hope to chase down a playoff spot this year.  The following are the upcoming games for the lightning ...
The following are the upcoming games for the lightning including with the opponents record to this date followed by their record either at home if I am playing them at their arena or their road record if they are playing at my arena.  And then beside that is whether I think I will win or lose that game.

Tampa at NJ 32-22-7     12-14-5                                W

Carolina at Tampa 25-25-11      10-14-2                     W

Columbus at Tampa 20-32-10      10-17-4                   W

Tampa at Nashville 32-20-10       15-9-7                     L

Trade Deadline

Tampa at Dallas 29-26-5       12-17-1                          W

NYI at Tampa 30-26-6            11-17-3                       W

Washington at Tampa 27-30-4            12-14-4            L

Tampa at St.Louis 29-26-7       17-12-2                      L

Washington at Tampa 27-30-4         12-14-4               W

Tampa at Atlanta 15-40-7            10-18-3                   W

Tampa at Atlanta 15-40-7            10-18-3                   L

Carolina at Tampa 25-25-11           10-14-2                W

Vancouver at Tampa 30-22-8           12-12-6              W

Tampa at Colorado 29-25-6             16-11-3              L

Pittsburgh at Tampa 15-37-10     11-17-3                    W

Tampa at Florida 34-17-10               17-7-7                L

Tampa at Colorado 29-25-6             16-11-3              W

Toronto at Tampa 21-34-6                11-16-3              W

Montreal at Tampa 31-25-5            15-13-2                L

Tampa at Vancouver 30-22-8          18-10-2               L

Record = 12-8

Overall Record = 37-35-6-4 

This is not the best case scenario but in my mind this is the most realistic outcome for my next 20 games.  I’m guessing I’ll probably need more then 2 games over .500 to make the playoffs so I probably won’t make the playoffs. With this being said, the lightning will probably end up being sellers as opposed to buyers come the trade deadline, however if the lightning can win at the very least 3 of the next 4 games G.M. Paul Lamarche may decide to keep the team in tact or might even try to make a couple improvements.

Financial situation

Endorsement Deals:

Out of playoffs: Cost = 1 M. Revenue = 2 M

.500: Cost = 1 M.  Revenue = 2 M

Avg. 12 000 tickets: Cost = 2 M.  Revenue = 4 M

Based on the attendance of late I’ll probably end up averaging less then 12 000 tickets

I should be able to finish with more wins in regulation then losses in regulation

It will be really tough to make the playoffs so I’m going to assume that I won’t.

Estimated lost money in endorsement = 1M

The projected balance at the end of the year on the team finances page is 9 872 000

With my attendance constantly going down I’ll assume my projected balance to be 1 M less therefore the amount of money the Tampa Bay Lightning will have after this season will be 9 872 000 – 1 000 000 – 1 000 000 = 7 872 000

This balance implies a loss of 15 000 000 – 7 872 000 = 8 128 000$ during the 2005 – 2006 season.

Tampa Bay Lighting G.M. Paul Lamarche had this to say about these figures: “I am extremely embarrassed to have let the team finances drop this much during the year and there is no one to blame but myself.  This year has been a learning year for myself and I am planning on taking what I’ve learnt this year and plan on never allowing such large financial losses to occur again.”

He also had this to say about the run for the playoffs and the trade deadline: “If our guys want me to keep this team in tact and make a run for the playoffs they better show it in the next 4 games.”