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The Pronman Index

Corey Pronman released his top prospects list just a few days ago (Top 124 skaters, Top 28 goalies). Without disclosing the list, how did the NEFHL teams fare?

First, let's look at the number of prospects on Pronman's list for each team:

1 Preds 14
2 Panthers 12
3 Wild 11
4 Canucks 8
5 Flames 8
6 Kings 8
7 Wings 7
8 Sharks 7
9 Ducks 6
10 Canadiens 6
11 Canes 6
12 Hawks 5
13 Caps 5
14 Sens 5
15 Vegas 4
16 Leafs 4
17 Oilers 4
18 Blues 4
19 Devils 4
20 Sabres 3
21 Isles 3
22 Bruins 3
23 Pens 2
24 Avs 2
25 Flyers 2
26 Jets 2
27 Rangers 2
28 BJs 2
29 Stars 1
30 Yotes 1
31 Lightning 1


Like in the 2019 NEFHL Organizational Prospect Rankings, Nashville sits at the top with 14 prospects on Pronman's list. They are closely followed by the Panthers with 12 and then the Wild at 11, who are third and second based on a weighted Dobbersprospect appreciation. After that, the list changes quite a bit based on the number of prospects only.

However, the Organizational Prospect Rankings (OPR) does have a quality weighting. Counting prospects on a list do not give out that information, as a team having 10 prospects at the bottom of the list would still come out high. To add weight to the quality of prospects, points were given to Pronman's rankings, with the last prospect being worth 1 point and the top prospect being worth 124 points. 

1 Panthers 946
2 Preds 845
3 Wild 576
4 Wings 548
5 Sharks 544
6 Canucks 443
7 Hawks 443
8 Caps 410
9 Ducks 397
10 Canadiens 387
11 Vegas 376
12 Sens 369
13 Flames 339
14 Kings 335
15 Leafs 285
16 Oilers 226
17 Sabres 201
18 Isles 194
19 Blues 193
20 Devils 176
21 Pens 171
22 Avs 164
23 Canes 161
24 Bruins 145
25 Flyers 138
26 Stars 90
27 Jets 81
28 Rangers 73
29 Yotes 50
30 BJs 36
31 Lightning 32

 

From Pronman's point of view, the team that would have the best prospect pool when including criteria for quality would be Florida, pulling out ahead of Nashville. With the quality weighting, Florida and Nashville are significantly ahead of the third-place by a margin of 30%. There are other significant movements in comparison to OPR rankings. The fourth-place goes to Detroit, who were all the way down to 20 in the OPR. The other big movers were Washington, from 22 to 8, and Anaheim, from 23 to 9.

To complexify things a bit more, another quality weighting was added, with quality points not being given in a linear fashion but with increasing jumps as the prospects are ranked higher. On such a scale, the last prospect on Pronman's list was still given a value of 1 but the top prospect was given a value of 222 (instead of 124). Along the way, prospects were given increasing value, with first 1 point gaps, then 2 points gaps and at the top 3 points gaps.

Here are the final results for the "Pronman Index":

Rank Name Weighted
1 Panthers 1340
2 Preds 1162
3 Wings 831
4 Sharks 811
5 Wild 748
6 Hawks 664
7 Caps 623
8 Vegas 619
9 Ducks 618
10 Canucks 614
11 Canadiens 557
12 Sens 510
13 Flames 409
14 Kings 404
15 Leafs 370
16 Oilers 309
17 Sabres 252
18 Pens 243
19 Blues 242
20 Isles 233
21 Devils 225
22 Avs 224
23 Canes 196
24 Flyers 181
25 Bruins 167
26 Stars 130
27 Jets 95
28 Rangers 73
29 Yotes 50
30 BJs 36
31 Lightning 32

 

Upping the value of quality, Florida slightly increase their margin over Nashville at the top. The surprise is Detroit closing in on Nashville and climbing to the third place. Minnesota falls a bit to the fifth place with San Jose moving up a spot. Vancouver is the big mover down, going from fourth based on the number of prospects, to sixth with a simple quality weighting and down to tenth with higher quality weighting. It is still an impressing result considering how loaded their pro team is already. Lastly, Vegas, despite having only four prospects on the list, climb to spot number eight as three of their prospects are way up on Pronman's list (top skater, 2nd goalie, 5th skater).

As a last thought, keep in mind that Pronman's index is just measured on Pronman's latest rankings for prospects. Unlike Dobbers, it's not based on fantasy hockey potential production, which makes the list differ quite a bit from the OPR. Also, goalies were mixed in on a point basis, spread around with points equivalent to the 12th best skater for the top goalie and to the 121st skater for the last goalie.

Get ready for news coming in the following week with further prospects analysis from Nashville's GM perspective.